Understanding Sports Betting Math

Most of the people in New Zealand that are looking to place bets on the various sports available will be the ones that were fans to begin with. While there may be a few gamblers that choose to move towards betting on sports, for the most part, sports bettors are the die-hard fans looking to capitalise on their knowledge of the game.

At the end of the day, every form of gambling is mathematics, including the games of chance. Those that understand the way in which the maths behind the game works will ultimately be able to give themselves an advantage by avoiding poorly placed bets.

Sports Betting Basics

The mathematics behind a winning bet can get rather complicated, however, the way to keep ahead of a bookmaker remains fairly straightforward, with 52.4% of a player’s bets needing to be collected to break even.

The most important thing for New Zealand punters to remember is that when placing lucrative bets, there are 3 things that always need to be known; the type of bet that they wish to make, the number of the over/under number of the team that they have chosen to bet on and the amount that they want to wager.

Basic Math of Sports Betting

Let’s use an example where a bunch of blue and red marbles are put into a bag for a draw. While the probability depends on the number of red or blue marbles initially placed in the bag, we know that there is no real way to tell which colour will be pulled from the bag first even if we do know that there are double the amount of blue as there are red.

This is not the case with a football game that has 2/1 odds on blue, as there are other factors that come into play. A simple change in the weather, such as a few extra mph of wind, can directly affect a team’s chances of making a victory, and this would mean that calculations as to the possibility of winning would change.

The Answer’s in the Equation

Consider the equation X * Z = Y, where X represents the average betting odds and Z is the success rate of the various predictions made. When Y sits above 1, punters will be winners in the long run.

Some people are confused as to exactly how so many Kiwi punters have managed to place some successful bets and win in sports betting NZ and it is the exact same thing as asking how that Y is larger than 1; the answer lies on the values of the X and Z. By altering Z and Z, punters will obviously be able to alter the product of the two.

Statistics in Sports Betting

Knowing full well that a single mathematical equation can distinguish winners from losers, we can see a little but more clearly that statistics are there to be challenged and not necessarily followed as the equation could change at any given point.

However, statistics are vital in sports betting math and completely rejecting them would be like deploring those that follow sports or analyse teams and players. The statistics may not be the answer to winning as many believe, but they certainly do give a good idea of what to expect and provide hope to the punters that sportsbooks wish to keep interested.